In The End of the World is Just the Beginning, author Peter Zeihan attempts to show readers how the world will look after the end of globalization. He argues that without globalism, states and nations will pursue policies based on their own interests, creating a more “disorderly” world in which security becomes a much broader concept. Through careful analysis, he examines how this new order will alter our political landscape, with some countries becoming highly prosperous and others being left behind.
It is not the there will be an “end to the world” but that there will be an end to the world that we have come to live in the last few decades, which is a highly globalized and interdependent world.
Zeihan's analytical approach in all of his books involves examining a few key factors, including demography, geography, and history.
He looks at age pyramids to predict a country's labor force growth or decline and its overall economic prospects. Zeihan also pays particular attention to a country's access to oceans and waterways, as maritime transportation is the most cost-effective option for trade.
Zeihan begins his book by exploring how globalization has shaped our current era. He notes that advances in technology have allowed us to move goods and services around the globe at unprecedented speeds and levels of efficiency, while also eliminating many traditional barriers to trade. This has resulted in an increasingly interconnected world in which countries rely heavily on one another for economic growth and stability. However, Zeihan warns that this trend toward globalization is now waning due to rising populism and nationalism. As these forces continue to shape our politics, nations are increasingly turning inward and pursuing policies that put their own interests first.
For example, populist leaders are enacting trade restrictions that limit the free movement of goods and services, while also attempting to weaken international institutions like the European Union and the World Trade Organization. This will inevitably lead to a more atomized world, with states increasingly playing by their own rules. This will have far-reaching implications for global security, as the rules of the game will no longer be shaped by global consensus. Instead, countries will need to rely on their own resources and capabilities in order to protect themselves.
This, Zeihan explains, will create a more fractured and unstable world order. He argues that, in this new environment, security will become much more than just military strength. Instead, states and countries will need to focus on economic and energy security, access to resources and markets, and creating alliances with other nations in order to survive. By doing so, they will be able to safeguard their own interests while also taking advantage of opportunities to expand their influence and power.
The second part of his book looks at what this new world order might look like when countries focus solely on their self-interests instead of on global cooperation. He argues that some countries will thrive in this environment while others will be left behind due to their geography or lack of resources. He examines how different regions such as Europe, Asia, Africa, and North America will fare under this new arrangement—with a particular emphasis on how power dynamics between countries may shift—and paints a picture of what the future could potentially look like if globalization continues its decline.
Zeihan explores the potential success of various countries within six different sectors. Often, a country's performance in one sector can be indicative of their performance in multiple sectors.
For example, the United States is expected to do well overall thanks to its strong maritime transportation network, thriving capital markets, energy independence thanks to the shale oil boom, and productive agriculture industry.
The United States has a favorable position for maritime trade due to its connection to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, while China is hampered by its lack of direct access to either ocean. Furthermore, Zeihan argues that history also plays an important role in a country's success. Historical decisions, alliances, and systems have shaped the world order today and will continue to do so in the future. All of these elements must be taken into account when looking at the future of a country.
China and Russia may struggle in several sectors due to factors such as an aging population, less than optimal transportation networks, and underdeveloped capital markets (in China's case, a closed market and in Russia's case, sanctions). Russia's transportation system is less than ideal, and in some cases, obsolete. China's lack of a developed capital market is also a concern. While the U.S. capital market is robust, China's has been growing steadily for the last several years, but it is still not robust enough to provide the necessary capital for all industries.
Additionally, China relies on imports for much of its food and energy needs. In a world where global connections are weakened, both countries may face significant challenges. To understand how much China relies on other countries for food, consider the fact that its agricultural exports account for less than one percent of its GDP. And when it comes to energy, China relies heavily on other countries to provide the fuel needed to power its economy. With countries such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran at the mercy of the U.S., these energy exporters may face a significant challenge in the future.
When considering food, one must also think about the factors of production when it comes to growing food. These include land, labor, and capital. In China, the land available for farming is not as plentiful as in the U.S., meaning that it takes more labor to produce the same amount of food. China's lack of capital for agriculture is also a problem. While China has made great strides in increasing the amount of farmland, it is still not enough to support its growing population.
Europe also faces its own set of challenges, including an aging population, energy dependence, and a lack of access to industrial materials. Africa and India may face problems such as feeding their populations.
He notes that Japan, with its island geography, will be better off than continental countries such as Germany and France in terms of access to resources and potential markets. Ultimately, the countries that can best navigate the new rules of the global order, exploit their geographical advantages, and build up their capabilities in the areas of security and trade will be the ones best positioned to thrive in the coming years.
Countries in the Mediterranean have access to the Atlantic, while countries in the Americas have access to both the Atlantic and Pacific. This can be a major advantage when it comes to trade and resourcing. Additionally, countries with access to multiple waterways are more likely to be connected to global trade routes, allowing them to capitalize on economic opportunities.
Zeihan notes that countries in the Mediterranean such as Italy, Turkey, Spain, and Greece are also better off than their continental neighbors for the same reasons. Additionally, these countries have the added benefit of a temperate climate that is conducive to farming. This gives them a leg up in terms of food production and sustainability. Another important factor is the availability of resources, such as minerals and energy.
Turkey are well-positioned to capitalize on their geography and become major players in the new age of global politics. Countries such as Turkey have access to both the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, as well as access to resources from both Europe and the Middle East. These countries can take advantage of their strategic position to secure economic, political, and military advantages. Furthermore, regions like the Black Sea and the Red Sea, which are already heavily trafficked by global trade routes, will be even more important in the coming years.
Portugal, Spain, and Italy may have an advantage due to their geographical proximity to Africa and the Middle East. Countries in the Americas can also benefit from having access to the Atlantic and Pacific. With this in mind, countries that can capitalize on their access to multiple waterways can thus position themselves to capitalize on economic opportunities and build resiliency in the face of global disruptions. Furthermore, countries that are able to build up their capability in the areas of security and trade will be better equipped to navigate this new global order.
The Netherlands is well-positioned to take advantage of its numerous ports and strong shipping network, making it well-equipped for trade in the new global landscape. Additionally, Zeihan notes that countries with natural resources such as oil, gas, and minerals will have an advantage over those without these resources.
The United States has the longest coastline in the world and is uniquely positioned to benefit from global trade. Additionally, Zeihan examines a country's access to global markets, its security alliances, and its geopolitical relationships. Ultimately, he argues that a country's success or failure in the coming world order will depend on its ability to tap into these resources and use them to its advantage. All of this will come together to create a new global order, one that is far more unpredictable than the one we live in today.
Additionally, Zeihan considers the role of history, particularly the US's role in protecting the global maritime trading system since World War II. As the US's commitment to this system wanes, it could have significant impacts on the global economy. Based on these factors, Zeihan predicts that the US will fare well in a deglobalized world, while other countries may struggle.
Finally, Zeihan outlines some possible solutions for navigating this new era with caution and foresight. He suggests that governments should take steps to ensure they maintain control over key resources such as food production and energy reserves; establish economic relationships with other nations through trade agreements; invest in infrastructure projects that can help them remain competitive; and prepare for increased military conflict as competition intensifies between major powers.
The End of the World is Just the Beginning provides an insightful analysis into how a post-globalization world might look like from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. While offering some potential solutions for navigating these choppy waters, it ultimately serves as a warning about what could happen if we do not act quickly to address growing anti-globalization sentiment among nation states.