The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman (co-founder of Deep Mind) is a sweeping and provocative exploration of the transformative potential - and existential risks - posed by the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. Drawing on a wealth of research and insider knowledge, Suleyman argues that these technologies represent not just incremental improvements, but a fundamental shift in the nature and capabilities of technology itself - a shift that will reshape every aspect of our lives, from health and work to politics and even human identity.
The coming wave of technological progress, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology, is poised to reshape our world in profound and unprecedented ways. As Mustafa Suleyman explains in his book, these technologies are not just incremental advances, but represent a fundamental phase transition in the nature and capabilities of technology itself.
Over the past 10,000 years, human civilization has experienced multiple waves of transformative technological change. The Agricultural Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the recent Digital Revolution have each reshaped societies, economies, and the very fabric of daily life. However, the sheer pace and scale of change has accelerated dramatically in recent times. Of the seven major general-purpose technologies to emerge in the last century, six have arrived in just the past 50 years.
The AI Revolution has already begun in earnest, though its full implications are yet to be felt. Powered by exponential growth in computing power, data availability and algorithmic sophistication, AI systems are rapidly progressing from narrow, domain-specific applications to broad, general-purpose tools capable of taking on complex, open-ended tasks. Large language models like GPT-3 and GPT-4 can now engage in fluent conversation, answer questions, write code, design websites, and even build functional smartphone apps, often at a level equal to or surpassing human capabilities.
The rapid evolution of these systems has taken even experts by surprise. Feats considered impossible just a few years ago are now routinely achieved, often by small teams with modest resources. The scaling hypothesis - the idea that simply increasing the size of neural networks and the data they are trained on will continue to yield proportional gains in capability - has so far proven largely correct. If this trend continues, it is only a matter of time before AI systems surpass human-level performance on a wide range of cognitive tasks.
But AI is not just getting better at specific tasks - it is becoming more general, flexible and autonomous. Cutting-edge systems are now able to set and pursue their own goals, learn from experience, and adapt to new situations on the fly. They are moving beyond mere tools to something more akin to partners or even agents in their own right. As they permeate every industry and domain, from healthcare and finance to transportation and manufacturing, they are becoming as ubiquitous and essential as electricity itself.
At the same time, a parallel revolution is unfolding in the world of biology. Rapid advances in gene sequencing, editing, and synthesis are giving us unprecedented power to understand, modify, and even create living systems from the ground up. The discovery of CRISPR-Cas9 has made gene editing cheaper, faster, and more precise than ever before, while the rise of synthetic biology is enabling the design and manufacture of entirely novel organisms and biomaterials.
The implications are staggering. In medicine, gene therapies and engineered immune cells are already treating previously incurable genetic disorders and cancers. Further down the line, genetically enhanced humans - stronger, smarter, longer-lived - may become a reality. In manufacturing, microbes are being engineered to produce everything from biofuels and plastics to meat and leather, promising a cleaner and more sustainable industrial base. And in the study of life itself, synthetic organisms are shedding new light on the origins and mechanics of biological systems.
Like AI, synthetic biology is progressing at a breakneck pace, with costs plummeting as capabilities grow. What took the Human Genome Project over a decade and billions of dollars to achieve can now be done in a day for less than $1000. DNA sequencing is now outpacing Moore's Law, while DNA synthesis is not far behind. The ability to "read," "write," and "edit" the code of life is becoming democratized, with profound implications for health, industry, agriculture, and the environment.
Yet this very democratization also poses grave risks. As Suleyman notes, the coming wave of AI and biotech is not just empowering scientists, entrepreneurs and policymakers, but also rogue actors and authoritarian states. In a world where state-of-the-art AI systems can be run on a laptop, and garage biohackers can synthesize viruses from mail-order DNA, the potential for misuse and unintended consequences is vast.
Already, deep fakes and AI-generated misinformation are eroding trust in media and institutions. Cyberattacks are growing in frequency and sophistication, with AI-powered hacks posing a threat to everything from power grids to nuclear command and control systems. In the biological realm, DIY gene editing kits and mail-order DNA are lowering barriers to entry for would-be bioterrorists. A world where lethal autonomous weapons systems and engineered pandemics are cheap and accessible to almost anyone is one balanced on a knife-edge of existential risk.
Even in the absence of malign actors, the sheer pace and scale of change risks outstripping our ability to adapt and manage its fallout. The coming wave will bring immense benefits and opportunities, but also wrenching economic and social dislocations. As AI and robotics render millions of jobs obsolete, inequality and social unrest may grow. As algorithms shape more and more of our choices and interactions, human agency and privacy may erode. And as synthetic biology blurs the lines between natural and artificial, our very understanding of what it means to be human may be called into question.
Yet for all these dangers, Suleyman argues, the forward march of technology is both inevitable and necessary. The genie, once out of the bottle, cannot be put back in. The competitive dynamics between nations and corporations, the curiosity and ambition of scientists and entrepreneurs, the relentless logic of efficiency and profit - all these combine to drive innovation forward at an inexorable pace. China has already declared its intention to become the world leader in both AI and biotech by 2030, while private companies like Google, Meta, and OpenAI are locked in an arms race to build ever more capable systems. In a multipolar world beset by mistrust and rivalry, unilateral restraint is a recipe for getting left behind.
But necessity is an even more powerful driver than geopolitical competition. Our world faces a series of interlocking crises - from climate change and ecological collapse to aging populations and stagnant productivity growth - that threaten the very foundations of our civilization. Without continued technological progress, we will simply lack the tools to meet these challenges.
Renewable energy, carbon capture, synthetic meats, precision agriculture - all these and more will be essential to avert the worst impacts of climate change while still feeding a growing global population. Likewise, as birthrates plummet and populations age, only sustained gains in productivity driven by automation and AI can maintain living standards and support the growing ranks of elderly. A world without technological progress is one condemned to scarcity, stagnation, and collapse.
The path forward, then, is not to reject or fear the coming wave, but to seek to understand and guide it. This will require a massive, coordinated effort on the part of governments, international institutions, academia, and industry to develop robust governance frameworks, safety protocols, and ethical guidelines for the development and deployment of powerful new technologies.
Some pieces of this puzzle are already falling into place. The Montreal Declaration on Responsible AI, signed by over 150 experts and institutions worldwide, outlines a set of core principles for the ethical development of AI systems. The Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI brought together leading thinkers to discuss strategies for ensuring that advanced AI remains aligned with human values and interests. And the Global Partnership on AI, launched by the G7 countries in 2020, aims to promote responsible AI development and cooperate on issues like data sharing, standards-setting, and capacity building.
In the realm of synthetic biology, too, there are encouraging signs of proactive governance. The International Gene Synthesis Consortium, a voluntary partnership between leading gene synthesis companies, screens all orders for potentially dangerous sequences. The iGEM competition, which engages thousands of students worldwide in synthetic biology projects, has pioneered a code of ethics and a system of "safety by design" principles. And the International Risk Governance Council has developed a framework for the responsible development of synthetic biology applications.
But according to Suleyman, much more remains to be done. We need a massive scaling-up of interdisciplinary research on the societal implications of AI and biotech, from their economic and geopolitical impacts to their philosophical and theological ramifications. We need stronger global institutions with the authority and resources to coordinate regulation and governance across borders. We need robust mechanisms for public engagement and deliberation, so that the development of these technologies is shaped by democratic values rather than the whims of a technocratic elite. And we need a fundamental shift in mindset, from one of techno-utopianism and laissez-faire to one of precaution, humility, and proactive risk management.
Above all, we need to recognize that the coming wave of AI and biotech is not just a technological challenge, but an existential one. These technologies touch on the deepest questions of what it means to be human - our identity, agency, and place in the natural order. They have the potential to reshape not just our economies and societies, but our very bodies and minds. Used wisely, they could usher in an era of unprecedented abundance, health, and flourishing. Used recklessly, they could spell our demise.
The stakes could not be higher, nor the path forward more uncertain. But one thing is clear: we cannot afford to sleepwalk into the future. The coming wave will test our wisdom, our ethics, and our humanity as never before. How we rise to this challenge will shape the course of our species for generations to come. In the words of the great physicist and philosopher Freeman Dyson: "Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences. But how will we use this gift? Will we use it wisely, for the benefit of all mankind? Or will we use it to create a world of ever-increasing inequality, conflict, and destruction?"
The choice is ours to make. But make it we must, and soon. For the wave is coming, whether we are ready or not.